Bitcoin (BTC) has bounced off the bottom of a long term ascending channel. The price is expected to resume uptrend after the EMA crossover on the 4H BTC/USD chart. The 10 EMA just broke above the 21 EMA and the price is now clear to move towards the next resistance. The price will face short term resistance around $ 6,500 which is a strong resistance but not as strong as the next resistance of $ 6,700. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to breach this level since mid October. Historically, we have seen that this level has given Bitcoin (BTC) a tough time and the price has struggled to climb above it. Since mid September, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to effectively break and close above this level.
One strong wick seen on the BTC/USD chart around mid October touched the top of the ascending channel. However, it retraced soon and eventually the price fell back below the $ 6,700 resistance. It is pertinent to note that the price has now touched the top of the ascending channel twice and it has touched the bottom of the ascending channel at least twice. The close near mid October has not been taken into account as trading activity on weekend is usually inconsequential. The price is likely to retest the $ 6,500 resistance in the near future. If it breaks that level, then it will have to struggle with $ 6,700 for the next few days. The price has failed to break above this level since September. If it manages to break and close above this level now, it will turn market sentiment in favor of the bulls.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) was expected to break out in October as suggested by seasonality. Long term indicators at this point are already in favor of a trend reversal. The weekly chart for BTC/USD shows that the price has bottomed out and is now ready to begin a new cycle. However, that does not mean that the price will shoot straight up towards its previous all time high. There will be a gradual shift in sentiment as a new cycle begins. There will also be significant profit taking along the way as some investors sell to break even and get out of the market. The volume profile for the long term weekly chart shows that whenever the volume declines to lower levels, a trend reversal follows.
The period between 2014 and 2018 shown by the weekly chart is very significant. If we analyze it closely, we will see that the price has been trading in a bowl shaped formation. In fact, this is how the price corrects and then gradually starts to climb up. If we take halvening into account, then we should see the next bowl to be completed in two years instead of four. So, the previous bowl was formed in four years between 2014 and 2018. The next bowl will therefore be formed in two years between 2018 and 2020.
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