Ripple (XRP) entered a strong downtrend since the beginning of this month. This was the result of Ripple (XRP) forming a double top as seen on the above chart for XRP/USD. After forming the double top, Ripple (XRP) entered a descending channel and has since been on a steady decline. The trend line that passes through the point of inflection of the last rally during late September has served as a temporary support for XRP/USD so far. It is likely that Ripple (XRP) will rise from here and form another pattern like it has between Sep 17 and October 11. This might push the price of Ripple (XRP) above the $ 1 mark possibly by the end of October. RSI has reached oversold levels now on the 4H chart for XRP/USD.
Weiss wave volume for XRP/USD shows that the bearish momentum is dying out. However, there is no sign of any bulls yet. Ripple (XRP) was pumped straight to $ 0.80 in late September and then allowed to decline systemically. This shows that there is still a lack of serious volume in the market. Mostly, it is just big whales playing the small guys. That being said, this is certainly no pump and dump. It seems to be systemic accumulation on part of the whales. Once volume returns to exchanges, this kind of manipulation will be difficult to pull off as risk/reward will become higher. However, for now, in this unregulated market, those who can pull off such tricks are doing it.
Chart for XRP/USD (1W)
They are capitalizing on the naiveté of amateur investors who just love to see patterns printed before them. They do not care about behavior or intent. All they want to see is beautiful patterns, and so the whales provide them those patterns. Then some of them say, “Technical analysis does not apply to crypto” or “something was wrong with my chart patterns”. Technical analysis is a very important part of investing and trading. However, it is not the only part especially in markets like these. Understanding the intent and psyche of the traders behind every move is more important than any charting. However, most of the time it is hard to gauge, which is why, technical analysis takes precedence. Even traders who swear by chart patterns should have a well defined plan when it comes to investing in something like Ripple (XRP).
There are some investors who are long term believers in the technology. They are further divided into two categories. The first category comprises of investors who buy and forget. They will check their investment in 3 to 5 years from now, which is totally fine if that is their strategy. The second category of investors buys for the long term but they sell short term to accumulate more. These are mostly the whales. This is certainly more lucrative than buying and holding, but it requires a lot of skill. Then there are investors who are in it for the short or medium term. To them, Ripple (XRP) is just a cash cow to turn in a quick profit. They don’t care about its fundamentals or long term use case which is also fine if that is their plan. Once you have a solid plan, it becomes easy to see the intent behind every move as you have already set aside your emotions.