Stellar (XLM) has already broken its downtrend resistance against the US Dollar. However, it is moving nowhere until Bitcoin (BTC) gives it the green light. When Ripple (XRP) defied the market and made its own moves, Stellar (XLM) followed. However, it did not last long for either of them and the price nosedived back to where it climbed from. Stellar (XLM) is currently struggling to defend the 10 Day EMA. If history is any indication, the price is likely to skyrocket from here. This would also coincide with the altcoin rally. RSI for the above daily chart for XLM/USD shows that the technical conditions are ripe for a rally towards $ 1.
The VIX profile for the above chart shows that we have already found a bottom and the price is due for a trend reversal. The last time Stellar (XLM) was in a falling wedge was in late 2017. As the chart shows, we pierced straight through the downtrend and made a new all time high. One key difference this time is that the price has already broken through the downtrend resistance but it has not rallied straight from there. In fact, it has been consolidating above it for the last few days. This does appear strange when we compare the latter halves of both 2017 and 2018. However, if we do that, we might be looking at the wrong metrics.
It is true that there is a seasonality pattern and we see altcoins performing better in October to December. As always we are still likely to see that happen. However, Stellar (XLM) may not perform as well as it did during last October to December. That is because there is a more important metric than seasonality, which is market cycle. Last time Stellar (XLM) rallied we were at the part of the cycle just before the correction which is the most aggressive one. This time, we are at stage one. That is the period during which the price will rally but more in an accumulation pattern rather than an aggressive one.
Stellar (XLM) is still very likely to touch a price of $ 5 during its next cycle. That may be around mid 2019. Going into December 2018, the price of Stellar (XLM) like most altcoins will normalize as it experiences a trend reversal. However, this will not be the actual bull run. The bull run is supposed to begin in early 2019 when the price will go as high as $ 5 or even higher. The above weekly chart for XLM/BTC shows that Stellar (XLM) has just been correcting in a falling wedge pattern for the last eight months. It is yet to begin a new cycle. When it does begin a new cycle, it will first have to climb slowly all the way towards December. After then, it is expected to rise more aggressively just like the rest of the market. It is pertinent note that Stellar (XLM) will have to complete a cycle against Bitcoin (BTC). This means that for the months to follow, Stellar (XLM) will most likely be a better investment than Bitcoin (BTC).
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