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A short-lived rally gave eager bulls false hope as the the market attempted to break back into the trading range (TR) outlined in last week’s BTC Market Analysis. As noted in our last discussion, a break back into the TR would be considered a period of evaluation and an inability to maintain support within the TR would likely lead to a continuation of the downtrend:
Figure 1: BTC-USD, 2-Hour Candles, Downtrend Continuation
In a surprisingly aggressive move, bitcoin dropped $ 800 dollars in a few short hours. The move seemed to cripple many of the most bullish markets leaving some altcoins seeing 30–40% drops before finding any local bottoms. Last night’s move marked the first new low since the trading range (TR) formed 3 weeks ago:
Figure 1: BTC-USD, 2-HR Candles, Potential Distribution Trading Range
After coming within a hair’s breadth of $ 10,000, BTC reversed course to trade at $ 9,500 support. Are traders in for a day or two of range bound trading or is this pause in momentum simply a short consolidation period before Bitcoin blasts off?
Bitcoin and a handful of top altcoins pulled back roughly 3 – 5% over the past 24 hours in what appears to be a temporary break from a month of pleasantly consistent growth. While BTC appears to have overheated, overall market sentiment remains positive as the cryptocurrency market capitalization approaches nearly half a trillion dollars and everyone enthusiastically awaits the crossing of the $ 10,000 mark.
Since bottoming in the mid $ 300s, ETH-USD has managed to almost double in price over the course of a month. The support at the bottom came from the top of the previous reaccumulation trading range shown below:
Figure 1: ETHUSD, 12-Hour Candles, Previous Trading Range
Whether this is nothing more than a brief respite in an overall downward trending market remains to be seen. There are several very bullish factors to consider:
Figure 2: ETHUSD, Daily Candles, Macro Support
Ethereum price has been rising steadily during the past few days along the upwards trend line that has been evident since April 7th. $ 700 was repeatedly the day high on Saturday and Sunday. Repeated cycles of upwards price bursts followed by brief downwards price correction attempts have been evident on the 4 hour ETHUSD charts, since last Friday. However, the upwards trend line has been acting as a rising support level during the past few days. The market seems to be moving towards testing the resistance around $ 713.24 during the first few days of the upcoming week.
Will Bitcoin bore traders with a second day of sideways trading or are we bracing for the long-awaited breakout over $ 10k?
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have ascended at a steady pace over the last 3 weeks and it appears that Bitcoin has developed an impressive immunity against the usual correction triggers of tax selling, regulatory fears, exchange hacks and other FUD that have plagued crypto-markets since Q1 2018. In fact, at the moment there appears that positive cryptocurrency stories outweigh the negatives.
Over the last few weeks, bitcoin has had its fair share of ups and downs. The volatility has chopped up many of the public bulls and bears alike as the market has struggled to find a consistent direction for more than a couple of weeks at a time. The market is currently in an interesting space as many macro trends have been broken. One major trend that was broken last week was the macro demand line shown below:
Figure 1: BTC-USD, 12-HR Candles, Macro Supply Line Broken
Ethereum price soared up to a day high of $ 712 on Tuesday before a downwards price correction attempt became evident pulling the price downwards to a day low of $ 596 on Wednesday. The market bulls failed to break through the resistance around $ 713.24, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The upwards trend which has been evident since April 7th, bounced off this crucial resistance level. The price correction attempt is subsiding as ethereum price rose again above $ 600 during most of Wednesday’s trading sessions.
Will ethereum price continue on dropping on Thursday? or shall we expect the market bulls to take the upper hand again?
Will a 6% drop in bitcoin price hamper the current rally which has produced a 35% gain since March 3rd?
April continues to amaze but after an impressive rally, Bitcoin and other majors showed signs of bearish exhaustion as the market became overbought after topping out at $ 9,767 today.
As predicted BTC met stiff resistance near the 200-day MA ($ 9800) and while today’s pullback is mildly disconcerting, the longterm set up for BTC remains positive.
Every week provides a unique opportunity where major events will shape the price and utility of specific cryptocurrencies. This week provides major news events and platform updates to SNOV (Snovio), MTH (Monetha), NAS (Nebulas), TRX (Tron) and SC (Siacoin).
The 5 Alts to Own This Week
This week’s coins likely to see significant returns based on upcoming events include: SNOV (Snovio), MTH (Monetha), NAS (Nebulas), TRX (Tron), and SC (Siacoin).
[You can check out how the previous analysis and predictions fared here.]
With major platform updates, coin burns, and important announcements the above cryptocurrencies should provide above-average returns when compared to BTC’s price movement in the upcoming few weeks.
