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Summary:
Introducing our first video price analysis by Bitcoin Schmitcoin.
Over the last two years, the Lightning Network has been touted as the scaling solution for the Bitcoin Core (BTC) network. However, the solution has been heavily criticized for its lack of security, and on March 28, Bitcoin Unlimited’s chief scientist Peter Rizun wrote an interesting evaluation of the Lightning Network’s “dirty little secret.”
Also read: Mempool ‘Spam’ and Rising Fees: The Consequences of Veriblock’s Mainnet Launch
Since mid-February, the bitcoin market has continued to drift upward toward a band of strong, macro resistance (shown below as a red band). This slow, drift upward marks our fourth test of the resistance zone and, unlike the three prior tests, our rejection of the level has shown a weakness on the side of the bears:
Figure 1: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, Fourth Rejection
If we compare the three prior rejections (labeled 1, 2 and 3), we see that the move into this resistance level was violent — and had equally violent rejections. Our fourth attempt, however, was brought into the level on low volatility and saw a weak rejection.
A slow, grinding upward drift has been the name of the game for bitcoin’s market over the last few weeks. The upward drift is bringing us slowly to a level that was previously rejected violently:
Figure 1: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, Upward Drift
Last Friday, we discussed a macro resistance level bitcoin would likely test. The level was tested three times prior and immediately rejected. Now, for the fourth time, we find ourselves situated above the level as we wait to see if our support holds:
Figure 1: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, Fourth Test of Macro Resistance
Bitcoin remains in its tightly coiled range as the market continues its sideways trend for the third week in a row. While macro support has been tested three times recently, we have yet to test the overhanging macro resistance:
Figure 1: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, Narrow Range
The blue zone outlined above shows a very strong zone of support that, over the last few weeks, has seen three strong tests and has led to a slowly upward-drifting market consolidation. Since re-establishing support, the market has yet to see a meaningful retest of the overhead resistance outlined above in the red dashed and solid lines. The immediate resistance sitting overhead has, historically, been a highly volatile period where supply has manifested and stifled any bullish pressure:
