Since mid-February, the bitcoin market has continued to drift upward toward a band of strong, macro resistance (shown below as a red band). This slow, drift upward marks our fourth test of the resistance zone and, unlike the three prior tests, our rejection of the level has shown a weakness on the side of the bears:
Figure 1: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, Fourth Rejection
If we compare the three prior rejections (labeled 1, 2 and 3), we see that the move into this resistance level was violent — and had equally violent rejections. Our fourth attempt, however, was brought into the level on low volatility and saw a weak rejection.