The cryptocurrency market is full of Bitcoin (BTC) bears at this point. The long, extensive correction has been instrumental in weakening bullish resolve. All the euphoria and enthusiasm felt around levels of $ 18,000 and higher has now been completely shattered. Just when the majority starts to feel the same way, is the time we can expect a trend reversal. This was true when Bitcoin (BTC) topped out and this is true now that BTC/USD seems to have bottomed out. Historical data suggests that every time Bitcoin (BTC) has remained above the 21 Month EMA, it has remained bullish. In fact, going bearish on Bitcoin (BTC) at current levels is no different than buying Bitcoin (BTC) around $ 18,000.
We do not know for sure if this is the bottom. Many of us like to think it is. However, we know for sure that unless Bitcoin (BTC) falls below the 21 Month EMA, there is no such thing as a bearish setup. If you are bearish because you are waiting for Bitcoin (BTC) to fall back to $ 6,000, it is like being bullish waiting for Bitcoin (BTC) to go from $ 18,000 to $ 20,000. Most people in this market who have no prior trading experience would like to believe that they can call exact tops and bottoms. However, those of us who have been around for long know that a top or bottom is not a price but a process. Right now, Bitcoin (BTC) is in that process of forming a bottom. We do not know for sure if the exact bottom is reached.
Chart for BNC:BLX (1M)
However, considering that Bitcoin (BTC) has to stay above the 21 Month EMA in order for the long term bullish case to remain valid, there is no room for a fall below $ 5,800. Ever since the inception of Bitcoin (BTC) it has been bullish long term. More precisely, it has been trading in an ascending channel. Now, there are some who would like to believe that Bitcoin (BTC) cannot just grow at the same pace and thus it will follow a restricted upward channel. In that case, we refer to the first chart which shows Bitcoin (BTC) trading in a wedge. I personally believe in the scenario outlined by the first chart because there is a limited amount of money in the world and as the market cap of Bitcoin (BTC) grows, it will be harder to sustain aggressive growth rates.
Chart for BNC:BLX (1M)
The popular bearish view is that Bitcoin (BTC) has reached the top of an ascending channel twice, first in 2014 and then in 2017. They believe that the Bitcoin (BTC) bubble is ready to pop. According to them, if the stock market falls, Bitcoin (BTC) will fall with it and reach the bottom of this channel around 2021. This will see Bitcoin (BTC) at a double digit price of $ 30 or lower. Personally, I do not agree with this view, but that is just my opinion. I do believe however that if Bitcoin (BTC) falls below the 21 Month EMA, we will see significant downside probably towards $ 4,000 level. The true cost of mining a Bitcoin (BTC) lies somewhere between $ 5000 and $ 6000. It is extremely unlikely for the price to fall significantly below that under any case.
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